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Photo: ClevelandCavaliers.com
UPDATE: The Cavaliers will now keep their 46th overall pick in the draft, instead sending their 2nd round pick next season to the Suns to complete the deal. They also sent $500,000 cash to Phoenix.
The Cavaliers are now MUCH better than they were 24 hours ago by swapping Shaquille O'Neal for Ben Wallace and Sasha Pavlovic. But, it's still not quite enough to make them the best team in the league and overcome the likes of Orlando and the Lakers in the playoffs. The Cavaliers still have tonight's draft along with their mid-level and bi-annual exceptions to bolster the roster. Here's a little analysis of the Shaq-tastic Cavaliers.
Make no mistake about it, Shaq will be the Cavaliers' starting center next season. That doesn't mean, however, as some are implying, that Zydrunas Ilgauskas will be thrown on the scrap heap. Far from it, the trade sends Big Z to the bench where the pressure should be off, the minutes should go down, and the production may go up. Let me explain. With Z coming off of the bench, he will likely be featured in the offense more when he's in the game. Much like it was Mo and Delonte's time to shine when LBJ took a breather in the second quarter, it could be Z's time to exploit smaller opponent bigs when LBJ sits this season. Ideally, if the Cavaliers acquire a starting shooting guard, Delonte and Z could share that bench scoring load together.
You won't want to play Shaq and Z together too much, but I think it can be done for maybe 4-6 minutes a game. It would be a great move offensively with Z spotting up on the perimeter and Shaq patrolling the paint. The defensive scheme with those two on the floor at once, however, is something I don't want to even try and imagine. That's why it won't work for long stretches. Although, each of them can still get 25 minutes a game without playing with each other basically. It allows both of them to cut down on their minutes load, and it could prove to be a key notion heading into the postseason when Shaq's importance will truly show.
I think putting Mo Williams, Delonte West, LeBron James, and Shaq on the floor at the same time causes a lot of trouble for the opponent. Shaq and LBJ can each demand a double team whenever they want to, so Mo and Delonte should get even more open three point shots. If they re-sign Varejao, he would benefit a lot as well. With a strong force like Shaq, it could often be Varejao's man showing a double team on the block. That's where Andy thrives, when no one pays attention to him.
Now, as far where the Cavaliers' roster evolves from here, I tend to agree with Brian Windhorst saying that a stretch-the-floor power forward is needed to play along Shaq. Andy is not that person, so I think the MLE will be used to sign either Rasheed Wallace or Charlie Villanueva. I like Rasheed's game a lot to mesh with LeBron and Shaq's, but his age draws issue to the fact that with Z, Shaq, and Sheed on the roster, that's a pretty old frontcourt. Opting for Villanueva, who is about 10 years younger, remedies that. Rasheed will be easier to sign, but Villanueva could be the better fit. Playing devil's advocate, however, I say that the youth of our frontcourt lies in Varejao and the two rookies who will hopefully improve, J.J. Hickson and Darnell Jackson. This takes the pressure off of them, but it would be nice to see one of them get rotation minutes.
As for the draft tonight, I don't think it makes much difference. I think they'll still look to move up into the teens and get a wing perimeter defender type who could start at the 2 in the future. I think they're really high on Sam Young, and he could come in and help right now. If they don't have to give up the 30th pick, I see them snatching up whatever point guard is still around in the hopes to ease the burden on Gibson and West at that spot. At the 46th pick, they'll probably do what they normally do and stash someone away overseas, never to be heard from again. (See Ejike Ugboaja, Sasha Kaun).
I'll be back tonight for post-draft analysis.
Kirk
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