Chuck's Prediction

The Cleveland Indians enter the 2010 season with virtually no expectations on them.  The wounds from 2007 are still somewhat fresh if only for the fact that the core is gone; the run is done.  The heart of the team that nearly made the playoffs in 2005 and was within one game of their first World Series since ’97 are starting the season playing for new teams (two of which are now with the evil empires of Boston and New York).  The end seemed to sneak up on us; but as of last July 31^st, the Indians have officially packed it in on 2010. Financially strapped, the Indians were forced to make moves which, in the case of Victor Martinez, broke the heart of many fans (me included).  But, fortunately for us, they still have to play the games.  The Indians are young, but not that young.  They’re bad, but maybe not that bad.  They are a team full of question marks.  Is Hafner healthy enough for a full season?  Can Westbrook and Sizemore rebound from injuries?  Are Choo and Cabrera for real?  Is Jhonny Peralta still a resident of this planet?  Can we FINALLY have a decent bullpen in an even year?  I can’t answer all of these questions; quite frankly, I don’t even know if Jhonny knows where he is sometimes, or if he even cares.  But I think that some of these questions will be answered pretty early on in the season. 

On paper, the 2010 Cleveland Indians do not look like a team built to compete for a pennant and frankly they are not.  Three of the five members of their starting rotation break camp on a major league rotation for the first time in their career.  The combined innings pitched from these three (346) are only approximately 1 ½ years worth from an average starting pitcher.  They start the season with a 22 year old left fielder that has only played one season at AAA or above.  Due to the injury to Kerry Wood, Chris Perez will open as their closer; something he has never done before.  Lou Marson is not only asked to be an everyday MLB catcher for the first time, but also to manage an inexperienced pitching staff.  Finally, four of the nine members of their starting lineup have never opened a major league season on a major league roster.

But maybe they aren’t that bad.  They have one of the best players (and possibly the best centerfielder) in all of baseball in Grady Sizemore.  They have a right fielder that seems to be the real deal in Shin-Soo Choo.  They have two starting pitchers and four relief pitchers that have experienced success (and not that long ago: Carmona, Westbrook, Smith, Wood, Lewis and Rafael Perez).  They also are playing with no pressure and for a manager who seems to exude both confidence and excitement.  So here are my top five reasons why I think this year’s Cleveland Indians team gives their fans reason to believe.

#1 - A fresh start:  Whether we like it or not, the 2004-2009 Cleveland Indians were not perfect; in fact, they were far from perfect.  There was the collapse in 2004; which in all honesty may be unfair to mention.  There was the 2005 team that lost 6 of 7 in the final week of the season to narrowly miss the playoffs (their 93 wins was, at the time, the most wins to not make the playoffs since division play began).  There was the collapse against Boston in 2007, where two Cy Young candidates and Paul Byrd could not win one game out of three to close out the Red Sox.  There were the many slow starts and unfortunately, those Cleveland Indians carried their fair share of baggage. 

But the 2010 Indians have a clean slate.  They have a new manager and a retooled lineup.  Some of the faces remain, but for the most part, this is a new era.  Manny Acta brings a lot of excitement and energy to a group of young players who can play.  I think it’s only a matter of time before Tribe fans fall in love with Acta and with this new core of Indians who will take us to our next pennant.

#2 - Up the middle, top of the lineup:  For five years Grady Sizemore has manned centerfield and the leadoff position for the Cleveland Indians.  Over that time, Sizemore has recorded two gold gloves, hit many homeruns, and had many fans wondering if he should be moved down in the lineup to drive in more runs.  Sizemore is still in center, but Manny Acta will move him down to number two, behind shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera.  Cabrera had a break out year last year hitting over .300 and manning a pretty good shortstop.  Cabrera and Sizemore not only provide great defense at two of the most critical positions, but they also will set the tone for a Tribe offense that can put up runs and will have to given the pitching inadequacies.  

#3 – Bound to Rebound:  From 2005 – 2007, six Cleveland Indians appeared ready to take the next step and shore up some of the final components necessary to take the Tribe to perennial contender.  Then in 2008, things fell apart.  Jake Westbrook had season ending Tommy John surgery, Travis Hafner’s bum shoulder was exposed.  Jhonny Peralta became MIA, and Fausto Carmona absolutely fell apart after finishing 4^th on the Cy Young ballot in 2007.  On top of that, untouchable reliever Rafael Perez stopped getting batters out, let alone throwing his slider for strikes and Jensen Lewis; I just don’t really know what to say about Jensen Lewis.  These guys were supposed to be part of the foundation for a repeat in 2008 and beyond and literally fell off the Earth. 

These same guys are being counted on to bridge the gap between the thens and the laters, and I have to believe that a few of these guys are going to rebound.  Travis Hafner has had a few un-Pronk-like seasons, but made strides last year.  Carmona needs to throw his 2-seamer a little less as he has a hard time throwing it for strikes, but there is no reason that he can’t emerge as a solid #2 starter.  Rafael Perez will benefit from having Tony Sipp share in lefty duty.  JLew will most likely pitch in high leverage situations early, so maybe he’ll get the confidence back that closed ’08 13/13 in save opportunities.  Peralta is basically at the end of his rope as an Indian, so this is basically his last chance to turn it around.  I personally think that there were some personality conflicts between him and Wedge.  Finally, Jake Westbrook will get his opportunity to restart his career after surgery.  It’s time for some of these guys to step up and play to their potential and I believe that at least three of them will.

#4 – Old and New:  This year’s team is young, but they have quite a few guys who know what it is to be a Cleveland Indian.  Seven of the members of their active lineup were on the 2007 playoff team.  Russell Branyan, was in Cleveland during the late ‘90’s early ‘00’s runs.  These guys will be called upon to lead the new blood and set the tone for the next run.  The old has a chance to merge with the new and makeup for lost chances with the last run.   

#5 – It can’t get much worse:  Let me preface this statement by saying that it can get worse and no, I’m not contradicting myself.  It could get worse as an organization, but the Eric Wedge Indians had more than their share of disappointment; from injuries, to near misses, to failed expectations.  They saw only one playoff appearance, watched two Cy Young winners and their heart and soul personified, traded away.  For those Cleveland Indians, it can’t get much worse.  We are looking at the new Cleveland Indians, whom I’m sure will have their disappointments.  But we can look to them with confidence that the bad luck/circumstance that befell the last Cleveland Indians aren’t likely to repeat.

My final analysis for this team is simple.  If they can throw strikes, they will win games.  How many?  My thought is that this team will finish over .500.  I’m going to predict 84 wins and perhaps 2^nd in the AL Central.  I’m really high on Cabrera and Choo and look for both of them to improve upon 2009.  Sizemore simply had a down year, so I personally believe he will return to form.  I truly believe that they will see some of their role players rebound.  I really like Justin Masterson and look for him to come out of this season as a solid #3 and maybe even #2 starter.  Finally, Manny Acta was the right man for the job as the Indians will need to keep it loose and keep it fun.  When you do that, anything can happen.  The old Indians are gone.  These are the new Cleveland Indians; and they give me reason to believe.

Kirk's Prediction

#1 - Ghosts of seasons past: As Chuck mentioned, the 2010 version of the Cleveland Indians is loaded with guys that I shake my head at and wonder what the heck happened to them. Travis Hafner was signed to a longterm contract and projected to be a middle of the order hitter and All-Star caliber for that amount of time, Fausto Carmona was signed early as the Hart and now Shapiro-led Indians have done since the mid-'90s to lock up their young talent before they are outpriced by it, and Jhonny Peralta, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis all fit into this category in some fashion as well. Some of it is injuries, such as with the ultra reliable Jake Westbrook, while some is rotten luck combined with the inexplicable. I'll level with you; this is NOT going to happen, BUT if a) Hafner hits .290 with 35 homers and 100 RBI, b) Carmona wins 18 games and boasts a 3.25 ERA, c) Jhonny Peralta hits 25 homers and 80 RBI while holding down third base defensively, d) Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez return to 2007 form in the bullpen, and e) Jake Westbrook bounces back seamlessly from Tommy John and wins 15 games and has an ERA below 4.00, the Tribe is going to win 88-90 games and take the division. Back in the real world now, you have to hope maybe 3 or 4 of these five things happen and the Tribe can stay in the hunt in a wacky, competitive AL Cental and somehow 83 or 84 wins takes the division.

#2 - The new core: Who is in the core of this new team? Well, there are plenty of vacancies with the departures of Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, and C.C. Sabathia in the past two seasons. Now, the core starts with Grady Sizemore, and there are a lot of unknowns that follow that. Hafner's part of the core simply because we are married to him and his contract, but after that, the burden of producing falls upon mainly Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Matt LaPorta. Cabby and Choo look poised to challenge for All-Star positions this season, while LaPorta has a fantastic opportunity to use his time from last year to get off to a more level start than some youngsters. I am going to state the obvious here that these three will play a large role in how the Tribe fares this season and whether or not the face of the franchise right now is here past 14 or 15 months from now. My hope is Choo can hit .300 once again while increasing his homers from 20 to 25 and his ribbies from 86 to 95. As for Asdrubal, I'd like to see .315 with 12 homers and 65 RBI, considering batting leadoff will adversely affect those totals a bit. LaPorta hit 7 homers in 52 games last season, so perhaps he can find his way to 20 while switching in between first base and left field. First and foremost, he's got to stay healthy out of the gate, or Tribe fans will be reaching for the garbage bin to vomit at the sight of Andy Marte playing everyday first base.

#3 - The Acta effect: Manny Acta is not going to be confused with Eric Wedge in the least bit. Some of the things I like from early quotes and observations from those in spring training are his disgust at his pitchers, especially bullpen guys, walking hitters and his promise for his speedsters (Brantley, Cabrera, Choo, Sizemore) to have the green light at all times. I also get the impression that Acta will not sit back and regurgitate the "one game at a time" mantra if/when the team starts 2-10. Acta also did what Wedge could not, move Sizemore out of the leadoff spot. Perhaps, Manny can establish a good relationship with Fausto Carmona, Rafael Perez, and some of the other Latin pitchers who struggled at times in Camp Wedge. With four guys that could steal 20+ bases in the everyday lineup, I hope that Acta will bring over some small ball flavor for this team. Sizemore, Hafner, and eventually Branyan can mash homers, but I think solid plate discipline with some of these runners on the move can force the other team to make mistakes via errors, mistake pitches, and the like.

#4 - Competitive 'pen: This is what it seemingly boils down to for most teams that want to compete, Cleveland included. A rocky start is certain with Kerry Wood on the shelf for the first month, because Chris Perez is being thrown into the fire. What further concerns me is that Tony Sipp and Joe Smith, who finished strong last season, had troubled springs where walks were frequent. I believe that the Tribe kept two guys who can stretch out over multiple innings (Aaron Laffey and Jamey Wright) for a reason. The real key to this pen's success or failure is going to be Raffy Perez and Jensen Lewis in my humble opinion. If they return to '07 form, it takes pressure of Chris Perez at the outset and it could give them a potent foursome in the back end once Wood returns. My guess is that either Smith or Sipp falters and gets sent down and that either Lewis or Perez crashes and burns. I like Chris Perez overall, and I think Kerry Wood will bounce back if he can get out on the mound physically. One thing is assured: keep your favorite name-brand antacid close to the clicker for the start of the 2010 season!

#5 - An unknown breakout year: It happens every year in baseball: someone comes out of absolutely nowhere and has a stellar season. Why not in Cleveland? That's why I say. Here's three candidates. The first is starter Justin Masterson, who has an uncanny ability to pile up the strikeouts. Unfortunately, with that comes walks and high pitch counts as well. If Masterson can show he has enough pitches to stay in the rotation and out of the bullpen while establishing himself as a strong number three starter hopefully behind Carmona and Westbrook, this team could make things interesting for a chunk of the summer. The next is Michael Brantley, the 71st ranked prospect among Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects. He hit .313 in 28 games for the Tribe last season, and at 22, he looked like he belonged. The Branyan injury opens the door for Brantley to make and impression and stick for good, much like Sizemore did back in 2005. If he can get on base enough, he could be a real asset from out of the ninth spot in the batting order. The final potential surprise is Carlos Santana. That's right, I said it, Carlos Santana! Sandy Alomar Jr. says that this kid can hit now, and his catching is the only thing that needs fine tuning at Triple-A Columbus. If the Tribe is making things interesting, but Marson struggles mightily or there is an injury to either him or Redmond, Santana could get fast-tracked. The "Smooth" catcher hit .290 with 23 dingers and 97 RBI in 130 games at Double-A Akron. My guess is he is wearing a Tribe uniform by August 1st at the latest.

As for my prediction for how the Tribe will fare this season, I'm going to be very realistic. The rotation will struggle, which will put stress on a shaky bullpen to begin with. The team will hit, but it won't be enough. Hafner and Sizemore rebound and Carmona returns to '07 form, while Westbrook struggles out of the gate and Branyan and Kerry Wood stay on the DL for extended time. Luis Valbuena gets the Cabrera treatment from two seasons ago and gets sent back to Triple-A, and Lou Marson fails to hit enough. Russell Branyan manages to hit 3 homers in one game this season, while striking out five times in another game. The Twins win the division with 89 wins. As for the Tribe, I'll go with 76-86 and 4th place in the Central, finishing just ahead of the Royals and just behind the Tigers as the Twins and White Sox distance themselves a bit from the rest of the pack.

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